If there is one place that Democrats wanted to do well yesterday, and their expectations were blown out of the water, it was Texas. Not only did James Talarico flip this Trump+13 state, but he won by double digits. In addition, Democrats pretty much flipped every other statewide seat, including Governor, and even flipped the State House! There are a lot of reasons why Democrats should be excited, and that will be something that will be featured later in this article, but first, how did this even happen?
Let’s talk about the why first:
As James Carville said in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Based on national exit polls by NBC, out of the 75% of people that said the economy was not good or poor, they broke for Democrats by 42%!
In addition, 39% said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. Who do they blame on the economy being bad, you may ask? Why, President Trump of course! The same exit poll had Trump’s approval at -24, and 66% said his economic policies had made the economy worse in the US. Of course, out of those 66%, they heavily broke Democratic.
According to CNN’s exit polls, Talarico was +17% of people who found the economy as the most important issue, and combined with 30% people finding democracy as the most important issue, people simply thought Talarico (and Democrats everywhere) were better on their most important issue on average!
So now that we have established what were going through people’s minds, what demographics shifted the most to Democrats in Texas? Well, as you may have heard, Hispanics were perhaps the biggest reason why Democrats were able to sweep state offices.
Let’s not just compare Hispanic counties to 2024 President, when President Trump did the best he did with Hispanics, but 2016, when Hillary Clinton did the best Democrats have done with Hispanic in the Trump era.
The only counties on this list that did not hit their 2016 President mark was Webb County, and that was only by 6%! We legitimately saw 50% shifts left in the Rio Grande Valley, essentially undoing gains that Republicans have had in the Trump era in one night.
Democrats also ran up the score HARD in the 4 major metro areas, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. Not only did Talarico flip 3 of the 4, but he held all by double digits. The most notable one perhaps, is Austin, his home metro, where not only did the vote approach the 2024 President mark (2022 Governor was 805K as a comparison), but he managed to get a 23% shift left!
One other group that clearly shifted towards Democrats was younger people. According to CNN’s exit polling, in 2024, Allred won people 18-29 by about 8%. In 2026 though? Talarico is estimated to have won them by 60%! One specific county we can look at is Brazos County, a majority white, young, college-educated county that contains Texas A&M. In 2024, President Trump won it by 25%, but Talarico won it by 6%, a 31% shift left!
With all of that established, let’s go over everything they flipped, and what it really means for Texas’ future over the next four years:
Senate [Talarico (D)+12]:
Obviously, Senate was the big race, and the biggest reason why this matters is that Democrats got a seat they otherwise thought wasn’t getting just a few years ago. This is one reason why they will likely have a majority not just for the next 2 years, but likely until this class is up for re-election in 2032.
Governor [Hinojosa (D)+7]:
Besides the fact Hinojosa will be the first Hispanic governor in a now plurality Hispanic Texas, she is also the first Democrat to hold this seat since Ann Richards in the 90’s. While the Governor is not as powerful as in other states, they’re in charge of the Texas Military Forces (National Guard), can veto anything out of the legislature, can issue executive orders, and well, are in charge of the executive branch of Texas.
Lt. Governor [Goodwin (D)+6.1]:
While most Lt. Governor’s are simply ceremonial positions, essentially emergency Governors, the Lt. Governor of Texas is quite powerful. They are more or less in charge of the State Senate, being the President of the chamber. They can appoint people to committees, can cast a tie-breaking vote, and are a huge factor in the kinds of bills that go before the State Senate. The Lt. Governor is also part of other boards, including the Legislative Redistricting Board, which will get to draw maps in 2030, in the event the State House/Senate cannot come to an agreement about maps.
Attorney General [Johnson (D)+6.5]:
Much like the US Attorney General, the Texas Attorney General is the main lawyer for Texas as a whole. This was Ken Paxton’s former position, perhaps a little extra upsetting for him after he lost in the Senate. They can choose what to investigate in the state, or if they want to sue any companies or people in both Texas and the US, on behalf of the state of Texas. The Attorney General is also a part of the Legislative Redistricting Board.
Agriculture Commissioner [Tucker (D) +4]:
As the name implies, they are in charge of executing most of the agricultural related policies in the state. Per the USDA, Texas has the third highest gross receipts (revenue) of farms out of any state in the nation. They also have a major say in rural policies in general, such as those dealing with small cities.
Comptroller [Eckhardt (D) +5]:
The Comptroller is the chief treasurer in Texas, and is the one tasked with collecting taxes, as well as telling the State Legislature what its budget is. They also operate programs helping the disadvantaged get college scholarships.
Land Commissioner [Flores (D) +4]:
The Land Commissioner is in charge of all the land owned by the State of Texas, and also is in charge where people/corporations can and cannot mine.
Texas State Legislature (House 85D-65R, Senate 19R-12D):
While Democrats did not flip the State Senate due to it being so heavily gerrymandered, they were able to comfortably flip the State House by an estimated margin of 20 seats. Democrats have not held the State House since 2003, a 23 year gap. Because Democrats will hold the House, they will have a significant say for redistricting in 2030, likely helping the state have fair maps for the first time in a very long time. In addition, they will get to have a Democratic Speaker of the House, who themselves is a powerful figure in Texas politics. In addition to being on the Legislative Redistricting Board, they get to appoint people to committees, and enforce the rules of the House.
Railroad Commissioner [Rosenthal (D) +7]:
There are actually 3 Railroad Commissioners in the state, and despite what the name says, their main function is to regulate the oil and gas industry in the state. According to Ibisworld.com, 4 out of the top 5 biggest industries in Texas are related to oil and gas production, mining, or processing, so it is a huge deal in Texas. While you would think that whether a Republican or Democrat does this is not that relevant, it really mattered this year. Jon Rosenthal, the Democrat, was a perfectly normal person who was a State Representative before running for this seat. His opponent, Bo French though, was not a perfectly normal person. Instead of talking about, you know, gas and oil, he mainly went on racist, anti-Semitic, Islamaphobic tirades about how Texas was less white than it used to be.
Texas Supreme Court [5R-4D, 4 Justices were up in 2026]:
While Democrats did not take control of the Supreme Court in Texas, they not only managed to flip all four seats up for election, but also managed to flip the Chief Justice seat. The Texas Supreme Court has done things like uphold Texas’ abortion ban, and helped enforce strict voting restrictions like times when polls close, or how many polling locations there can be. With Democrats now having 4 justices, it will likely be harder for Republicans to use the Supreme Court as a firewall for their policies.
State Board of Education [7D-7R with one being essentially tied]:
While it’s unclear who will take control still, Democrats have a real chance to flip the State Board of Education. Much like House races, there are 15 districts, and Democrats have currently won 7 of them, including 3 flips. One is still up in the air, but the Democrat in District 8 is currently up 600 votes with 99% of the vote in. The State Board of Education is in charge of the Texas Education Agency, which oversees all public K-12 schools in the state. Of particular note, there have been controversies recently about the Republican controlled Board of Education trying to insert biblical references into curriculum, and trying to make curriculum in general more “Christian”.
What does this all mean? For the next four years, the executive branch of Texas will entirely be controlled by Democrats, and at least for the next two years, Democrats will control one of the chambers in the Legislature. They will be the ones pushing the agenda, and will likely create real change in the state, not just for those who voted for them, but all Texas. Think about it this way: Texas, if it was a country, would be the world’s 8th largest economy, and there has been a seismic shift in the government. For Democrats though nationwide, the results are particularly sweet. Even if Texas is no longer ground zero for Republicans (it is probably Florida now), it still has been a Republican stronghold for over 20 years, and a real symbol of conservative rule in the South. If you are a Democrat, think about if Republicans pretty much took over New York in one election, that is how it feels for Texas Republicans, and Republicans nationwide. Will Texas flip in the President’s race? Unclear, and even doubtful, but now it will certainly be seen as a red hot battleground state.
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