The political environment is suggesting a blue wave, but the political apparatus hasn’t caught up to the new reality. We are now seeing a generic ballot polling around D+8, but raters and political spending are still narrowly focused on information from the milder blue wave environment from the summer.
We have identified five districts that Democrats can absolutely flip in the current political environment and desperately need resources to compete. These districts are not yet on the DCCC Red-to-Blue program, and all of the candidates are in need of money. Given how important the House will be in 2028, it’s in the Democrats’ best interest to install as many incumbents as possible.
As a handy guide, we made a spreadsheet of all the districts on Red-to-Blue ranked by Trump’s margin of victory in 2024. All five of these seats were Trump +15 or less.
Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District – Fred Wellman
ActBlue Link
St. Louis Suburbs
Recent Elections
2024 President: Trump +8
2024 Senate: Hawley +3
2022 Senate: Schmitt +3
2020 Prez: Trump +8
2018 Senate: Hawley +2
This one is a bit of a headscratcher. Not only is MO-02 one of the most favorable seats without any outside spending, but the district is trending leftward over time and was only carried by the Republican Senate candidates by 3% in 2022 and 2024. MeidasTouch host Fred Wellman is running against Ann Wagner in MO-02, who has been in office since 2013. Between the legal cases over the state’s congressional map and the general rush to pour money into seats with top-of-the-ticket Senate races, Missouri has gotten lost in the shuffle.
But that should change now. Missouri will be running the 2026 election on its original map, which means that Wagner will have to defend a Trump +8 seat in a blue wave. With a redistricting referendum also on the ballot driving Democratic turnout, this seat is really vulnerable. However, without the requisite money to drive down Wagner’s small crossover appeal, it won’t happen. Thus, we think Wellman should be on the DCCC target list ASAP.
Ohio’s 10th Congressional District – Kristina Knickerbocker
ActBlue Link
Dayton
Recent Elections
2024 President: Trump +7
2024 Senate: Moreno +1
2022 Senate: Vance +6
2020 President: Trump +6
2018 Senate: Sherrod Brown +4
OH-10 is even closer than MO-02 by presidential margin, which makes its lack of conclusion rather confusing. The reason Dems are cautious is that incumbent Republican Mike Turner is a notoriously strong candidate, repeatedly outrunning the top of the ticket by 10% or more.
However, Democrats are clearly trying to oust Bill Huizenga and Rob Wittman, both similar types of candidates to Mike Turner who are in Trump-won seats. House Majority PAC even released an internal poll showing Turner as vulnerable in March, so I don’t understand where things derailed. There’s no reason they can’t spend to go after Turner in an environment like this, especially when Sherrod Brown is near-guaranteed to win the district. The district is also somewhat left-trending over time, and any investment would surely help Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown as well.
Indeed, we put all of the districts currently on Red-to-Blue and under Trump +15 in our spreadsheet into our Proportio tool, and guess what: OH-10 and OH-15 are two of the three most similar districts. VA-05 is already on Red-to-Blue because Perriello presumably has good connections.
Ohio’s 15th Congressional District – Don Leonard
ActBlue Link
Suburban Columbus
Recent Elections
2024 President: Trump +10
2024 Senate: Moreno +2
2022 Senate: Vance +4
2020 President: Trump +7
2018 Senate: Sherrod Brown +6
Staying in Ohio, we have another seat that isn’t that red. Mike Carey currently holds this seat and is another strong overperformer, but as you can see from prior results, Sherrod Brown is also very likely to carry this district. So, why aren’t Dems spending? Carey is another chronic overperformer, but he’s not-so-secretly aiming for higher office (he could’ve gotten appointed as Senator over Husted) and basically been a lockstep Trump vote of late.
Don Leonard defeated a more moderate candidate in the primary, but with proper backing, he could make this a real race. Suburban Columbus is rapidly adding new residents, and the fundamentals give Dems a real shot here.
Texas’ 23rd Congressional District – Katy Padilla Stout
ActBlue Link
Rio Grande Valley
Recent Elections
2024 President: Trump +15
2024 Senate: Cruz +9
2022 Governor: Abbott +10
2020 President: Trump +7
2020 Senate: Cornyn +9
2018 Senate: Cruz +2
Do you believe in Latinos reverting back to Democrats? Well, this is where you’d expect it to happen. TX-23 is 61% Latino and shifted hard right in both 2020 and 2024. However, we are in a different political world where Trump is deeply despised on economic issues, and pretty much every forecaster is expecting Latinos to blueshift in 2026. If the polls are correct and Dems are returning to 2018 levels, we expect Talarico to carry TX-23 over Paxton.
Even worse for Republicans, this seat is now vacant after Tony Gonzales resigned in disgrace in April. Greg Abbott has (wisely) chosen not to hold a special election, which is extremely corrupt, but would also likely see a Dem flip in the Rio Grande Valley. Instead, the primary was handed by default to gun rights influencer Brandon Herrera, who has made headlines for being a disgusting misogynist and studying Mein Kampf.
To us, this is the strangest omission from Red-to-Blue of them all. Katy Padilla Stout is a normal former teacher and attorney, but she has really struggled with fundraising. If you are expecting Republicans to pay a heavy price with Latinos for their policy decisions, TX-23 is a place to invest.
Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District – Dwayne Romero
ActBlue Link
Western Colorado
Recent Elections
2024 President: Trump +10
2022 Senate: O’Dea +1
2022 Governor: Polis +3
2020 President: Trump +8
2020 Senate: Gardner +10
2018 Governor: Stapleton +6
CO-03 was very close in the 2024 election, when Jeff Hurd narrowly defeated Adam Frisch by getting 50.1% of the vote. While Hurd has established himself as one of the few half-decent Colorado Republicans out there, that doesn’t mean the Democrats shouldn’t invest here. Dwayne Romero, a local business owner, won the primary over Alex Kelloff, but he hasn’t received much traction since.
The main reason this seat could be competitive (along with CO-05 and CO-08, which are both on Red-to-Blue) is that the governor’s race in Colorado is set to be a total blowout. Phil Weiser is facing Victor Marx, one of the worst candidates in the entire country. You can read about Marx’s many, many scandals, including his claim to be a murderer, in the news. This seat was already won by Polis in a much redder environment, so you’d expect Weiser to win it by about 10-15% in 2026. Due to this impending landslide, CO-03 should be in danger due to a total lack of Colorado Republican enthusiasm. The Latino reversion in this district could also be a huge factor: it’s 26% Hispanic and just 67% White.
Other Targets
Beyond this, we’d just like to add a brief list of reach districts that could be in play:
- WA-05 – Carmela Conroy
- TX-09 – Leticia Guiterrez
- TX-32 – Dan Barrios
- NC-03 – Raymond Smith Jr.
- NC-07 – Kimberly Hardy
About the Author
