We decided to try something different: We did a strawpoll regarding the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary, and you guys helped us out tremendously! We ended up getting 149 responses, and here are the results.
First, just to establish a baseline, this is a strawpoll, not a real, legit poll. The sample, as you may have suspected, is not very similar to the nation as a whole, or even the Democratic Party as a whole.
It is:
- 77% Male, 16% Female, 6% Other
- 18% 18-24, 21% 25-29 (38% 18-29), 42% 30-44, 17% 45-64, and 3% 65+
- 12% Non-College, 87% College Graduate+
- 91% Liberal, 9% Moderate, 0% Conservative
So basically, very male, very liberal, very college educated. This is just a warning that the answers you see beyond this point are not inherently indicative of what the Democratic base as a whole thinks.
As a baseline, we also asked people where they get their news from, and considering our audience, shouldn’t be too surprising. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple answers, but 87% said Bluesky. The only other answer above 50% was National Newspapers like the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.
Now, onto what you clicked onto this for, the candidates. We included everyone that was listed on a poll over the past month asking the same question, with the exception of Zohran Mamdani (who is ineligible to run) and Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton (who will almost certainly not be running). These are the candidates who were asked, given respondents could put in their own options if they wanted to: Xavier Becerra, Andy Beshear, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Abdul El-Sayed, Rahm Emanuel, Ruben Gallego, Kamala Harris, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Wes Moore, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Jared Polis, JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, Stephen A. Smith, James Talarico, Chris Van Hollen, Raphael Warnock, Tim Walz, Gretchen Whitmer.
We asked about name recognition, and most people knew everyone listed. Some did not know Stephen A. Smith, a sports and political commentator, and Jared Polis, the somewhat controversial Democratic Governor of Colorado, but everyone else got above 90%, with Abdul El-Sayed, Kamala Harris, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), tied at the top, with 99.3% name recognition.
When asked about their biggest factor for who they’d be supporting (single choice):
- 30.2% said economic policies (healthcare, cost of living)
- 18.8% said social policies (LGBTQ+ rights, civil rights)
- 12.1% said character/personality of candidates
- 11.4% said electability
- 0.7% said safety issues (immigration, crime)
- 0.7% said experience
However, had it been a choice, something to the effect of “Rooting out Trumpism” would likely have been the #1 answer. 26% of people had listed an answer other than the ones give, the vast majority of those either cited electoral/political reforms, or just flat out said something like “fighting fascism”.
Finally, we gave respondents two different questions about who they would support in the 2028 Democratic Primary for President. First, a question where respondents were asking who they would consider voting for in the primary, and were allowed to pick as many candidates as possible.
Three got above 70%: Jon Ossoff, Senator from Georgia, AOC, House Rep from New York, and JB Pritzker, Governor of Illinois. 2 others got above 50%: Raphael Warnock, the other Senator from Georgia, and Chris Van Hollen, Senator from Maryland who is currently challenging Chuck Schumer for Senate Majority Leader.
Finally, the single choice answer. Respondents were simply asked “Which of the following is currently your top choice in the 2028 Democratic Primary for President?”
There is 2 potential candidates who are clearly ahead of everyone else: AOC at 40.9%, and Jon Ossoff, at 34.9%. The only other candidates to get above 2% were JB Pritzker (9.4%), Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (3.4%), Pete Buttigieg, former Secretary of Transportation and 2020 presidential candidate (2%), and Kamala Harris, former VP and 2024 Democratic nominee for president (2%).
While we won’t be releasing crosstabs (because the sample is very homogenous), we will highlight two groups: moderates, and DSA members. Moderates, who made up 9% of the sample, favored Ossoff, who got 46% support, while no one else got above 7%. DSA Members (11% of sample) meanwhile, overwhelmingly favored AOC, who got 93% support.
Sample is 149 adults, poll taken from 11/12-13, on Google Forms.
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