It is said that politics is merely the visible crest of an ocean wave. Beneath the crest, we see turbulent and vicious realities, vortices and storms of breakups, deaths, births, marriages, arguments, and concordances transferred from reality to an unyielding ballot box. The shaping forces of the 2026 midterms, to a large extent, were set in motion years ago, by people we cannot hope to interview, in a time that already feels distant.
It cannot truly be said that the 341 million people in this country “feel” anything, in general. There will be, without question, at least 50 million breathing adults who vote for the Republican Party this November. That alone would make up one of the largest and richest nations on Earth. It will, likely, be outweighed by even more people voting for the Democratic Party. Both of these movements will rank among the largest political groupings in the history of mankind.
Just to get it out of the way, I have Dems retaking the Senate with 53 seats and winning 242 House seats as my prediction right now. As late polls come in for the grading deadline, I may change a few, but that’s where I’m at.
There has been a flurry of late polls that show Democrats at a roughly D+11 generic ballot, and I have been assuming that kind of environment for the last month. I am not so optimistic to predict beyond that; I largely believe polls are accurate.
Three conclusions:
The Economy is Eating Everything
Inflation and the economy are so salient that other issues seem like obscure cults. We keep seeing Democrats have made the most ground on inflation and cost of living. Trump’s approval on the economy remains his worst issue, and it has simply never gotten better.
There is no flatlining, no turnaround, nothing. That goes for practically every issue, by the way. Note that “inflation” is even worse than the economy as a whole, with Trump at -50%!
On Cygnal, effectively a Republican internal poll, voters were asked about what election ads they remembered. Inflation and gas prices crushed all other issues. Trans sports ads were seventh, and Social Security was even lower.
I know that people argue that this is expressive responding, and that voters are actually doing quite well and projecting their frustrations onto the political sphere. However, there has to be a separation between the psychology of the matter and the effect. For my purposes, if voters are saying they want action on cost of living, the Republicans are failing to offer it, and the Democrats are winning votes because of it, I don’t see how that cannot be an economic issue.
On nearly every poll, Democrats now lead on the economy. Is it as simple as “the economy, stupid”? Possibly. Republicans continue to perform better on issues like border security or crime, but one reason they are potentially unable to convert those into better numbers is that, to some soft partisans, the issue has been “solved”. Border crossings are at an all-time low; crime has dropped to record lows in US history (largely through actions the Republicans have had nothing to do with). Thus, their issue salience has dropped, leaving voters more angry about gas prices, the Iran War, and the economy.
Cygnal’s polling confirms that crime, illegal immigration, and abortion have all dropped off as issues since 2022 and the peak backlash to Biden.
Meanwhile, healthcare and threats to democracy have risen as more Democrats are being added to the electorate. Trump’s cuts to Medicaid and the ACA did not help matters. In the end, Cygnal’s generic ballot is D+8.
2. Sometimes, Unpopularity is All that Matters
Expecting people to come home for you while you are unpopular is a terrible strategy. To counteract increased partisan engagement and enthusiasm, you are betting on a leaky bucket. There is no way to fix this unless you change leaders or policies.
This has been true around the world, and it’s about to be true now. Even if Republicans get a polling error in their favor, it won’t be enough to do anything except staunch the bleeding. Indeed, Trump is now so unpopular that even his goals of breaking the system entirely and rigging elections now seem a bit far-fetched. Who is going to do January 6th to save Ken Paxton when gas is $5 per gallon?
Right now, in Oregon, we are seeing the reverse effect to what we are seeing across the country where unpopular Republicans struggle to get turnout, and Dems are motivated by anger at the unpopular incumbent. Here, unpopular governor Tina Kotek is clearly struggling to get better turnout than 2022, when Biden was president.
That is probably a good sign for polling.
3. This (might) be the highest turnout midterm ever!
In early voting, polls, and projections, it seems we are going to get mammoth turnout.
- 2026 in VA already has more votes than 2025
- In Washington, turnout is tracking higher than 2022 despite there not being any statewide campaigns. We should be nearing turnout from 2018 in Washington, when there was also a statewide race.
- California turnout is also skyrocketing, with statewide turnout running well ahead of 2022.
- Colorado, which performs elections by mail, is already seeing Unaffiliated and Democratic turnout running higher than any previous midterm. Republican ballots are slightly up as well.
Contrary to the idea that Democrats should fear high turnout, this should be a welcome development. Since Democrats are now doing very well with low-propensity voters, the hope should be to persuade as many people to get to the polls as possible. Republicans continue to need better turnout and persuasion numbers with the “middle-engagement” types, who increasingly seem to be checked out of politics.
Still, a rising tide will lift all boats. With unprecedented levels of political spending, increased access to voting methods, and population growth, we should see more raw votes and turnout than ever before.
As always, thank you for reading through this over the last few months. We will be hosting Election Night Coverage on our Twitch, and hopefully have lots of good news to share!
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