ElectionCord’s Overview and Ratings for Virginia’s House of Delegates Election

While the Governor’s, Lt. Governor’s, and Attorney General races are getting most of the attention in Virginia, we wanted to take some time and talk about the House of Delegates election. The House of Delegates is made up of 100 members, and similarly to the federal House of Representatives, they are all up for re-election every 2 years. In the last Governor’s election in 2021, not only did Glenn Youngkin win and flip the Governor’s Mansion, but Republicans gained the majority in the House of Delegates from the Democrats. In 2023, Democrats regained their majority, albeit a 51D-49R majority. In 2025, Youngkin is not allowed to run for re-election, as Governors can only run for one term at a time in Virginia. While winning the Governor’s race is very important for both parties, it can also have big consequences for downballot races… like the House of Delegates. In this piece, we’ll go over each “competitive seat”, and give our ratings for how each race might go.

First, we’re making a couple of assumptions. The VA Governor’s race will be something like D+6, in line with current polls. When we say the environment in a section, we really mean that the environment will be about Dem +6, as opposed to 2024, when Trump won nationally by 1.5%, or in 2021, where Youngkin won by 2%. We also think the handling of the federal workforce will be a big deal, as a lot of people who live in Northern Virginia work or worked for the federal government. Between DOGE effectively firing a lot of people, and as of 10/17/25, the government is shut down, it very well could convince a lot of people to vote who wouldn’t normally.

Also, check out our Ultimate 2025 Elections Guide, where information we used was a big part of how we got our ratings.

Ratings

We will not be including any toss-ups in our ratings, because we could just put all the close seats in that category, and that’s really not too interesting. Our four ratings for each side will be Lean, Likely, Safe, and Not Worth Consideration.

Not Worth Consideration: All major elections since 2020 were +20 either way, no scenario where a flip happens.

Safe: Possible scenarios where a flip happens, just not in 2025’s environment.

Likely: Scenarios where a flip happens are on the table, but incumbent is still favored.

Lean: Incumbent is slightly favored to win, but a flip can easily happen.

Non “Not Worth Consideration” Districts

VA-10 (Safe D): Went for Harris in 2024 by over 20%, although there was a 9.6% shift towards Trump compared to 2020. Incumbent Democrat Den Helmer will win re-election, he did not particularly underperform in 2023 compared to the Governor’s race in 2021. Only not in “Not Worth Consideration” because the Governor’s race in 2021 and Helmer’s race in 2023 were under 20 point margins.

VA-20 (Safe D): Went for Harris in 2024 by 13.5%, but the district shifted 18!% right from 2020. This was mostly thanks to the district being plurality Hispanic, and seeing pretty big turnout drops from 2020-2024. We might have put this in Likely D under normal circumstances, but the Republican candidate actually dropped out, leaving the incumbent Michelle Maldonado unopposed.

VA-21 (Likely D): VA-21 voted for Harris by 5%, but voted for Biden by 27%. The district actually voted for Youngkin by about 1%, but Democrat incumbent Josh Thomas won by 3% in 2023. The reasons for the huge shift right are not as clear as VA-20, as the district is majority white, but the most likely reason is some amount of Hispanic shift towards Republicans, and the electorate getting much whiter than in 2020. That being said, Thomas is favored due to the environment in 2025 being better for him than in 2023.

VA-22 (Lean D) (FLIP): VA-22 voted for Biden by 5%, and Harris by 1%, but has a Republican incumbent, Ian Lovejoy. Lovejoy won in 2023 by about 5%, but the environment was about D+1 in 2023 in Virginia, and it will almost certainly be more Dem friendly in 2025. On top of that, Lovejoy has a very tough opponent in Elizabeth Guzmán, who was a former member of the House of Delegates, and candidate for Virginia’s 7th district. Guzmán’s campaign has also outraised Lovejoy’s campaign nearly two to one, according to VPAP. Because of all these factors, we think Democrats are favored to flip this district.

VA-27 (Safe D): Went for Harris in 2024 by 20%, although the district went for Biden by 37% in 2020. VA-27 is pretty similar to VA-20 and VA-21, it just started with better margins for Democrats than those districts. It’s pretty diverse, with about 40% of the district being Hispanic or Asian, which is the driving factor to the big shift right from 2020-2024. That being said, the big cushion Democrats have here, combined with the environment likely to be better, leads to VA-27 safely going to the incumbent, Atoosa Reaser.

VA-28 (Safe D): Went for Harris in 2024 by 24%, and the incumbent, David A. Reid won in 2023 by about 23%. For these reasons, it’s pretty clearly a safe district, and the only reason it’s included here is because it only went D+18 in 2021.

VA-29 (Safe D): VA-29 voted for Harris by about 18%, although the district shifted about 8% right from 2020. Considering that the district is highly college educated and majority white, further shifts right are unlikely, especially in 2025.

VA-30 (Lean D) (FLIP): VA-30 will be one of the closest races in the House of Delegates, that much we can guarantee. It went to Biden in 2020 by about 1%, and went to Trump in 2024 by about 1%. The incumbent, Geary Higgins, won in 2023 by 7%, although this was an underperformance compared to Youngkin in 2021, who won the district by 13%. The environment in 2025 should be better though than in 2024, 2023, or 2021, and could even surpass 2020. The district also is the exact type of district that Democrats have been doing much better in in recent years, being a white, educated, affluent area. On top of that, Higgins’ opponent, John McAuliff, has outraised him up to this point according to VPAP. Again, this one will be close, and probably will be within a point either way, but we give the edge to McAuliff.

VA-32 (Safe R): VA-32 will clearly go to the Republican incumbent, Bill Wiley, it just barely missed not being put in the “Not Worth Consideration” column, because the district voted for Trump in 2020 by 19.8%.

VA-34 (Likely R): Went for Trump in 2024 by 7%, and in 2020 by 4%. VA-34 is a fairly average district, being majority white, and about in line with the state average for Bachelor’s attainment rate. The reason why this district is Likely R instead of Lean R is because the incumbent, Tony Wilt won in 2023 by 14%, and (barely) outraised his opponent Andrew Payton up to this point, according to VPAP. It will be a competitive election, but Wilt has enough cushion that he’s clearly favored to win.

VA-36 (Safe R): Like VA-32, VA-36 will clearly go in the Republican column, with incumbent Ellen Campbell winning by 20%. The only thing of note is that this district actually shifted to Harris compared to 2020, so Democrats could make significant gains here, just not enough to make this competitive.

VA-38 (Safe D): This race isn’t even between a Democrat and Republican, it’s between Democrat incumbent San Rasoul, and independent Maynard Keller Jr. It’s a step up for Rasoul as the race in 2023 was uncontested, and the only major election that was under a 20% margin for Dems was the governor race in 2021.

VA-40 (Likely R): VA-40 went to Trump by about 10% in 2024, and incumbent Joe McNamara won in 2023 by almost 20%, actually doing better here than Youngkin did in 2021. The only saving grace for Democrats is that the district shifted about 1% left compared to 2020. The margin for McNamara here will probably be more like Trump’s 10% than his 20% in 2023, but he should likely win regardless.

VA-41 (Lean D) (FLIP): This district voted for Trump in both 2020 and 2024, but both times he won by under 2%. In addition to that, the incumbent Republican, Chris Obenshain, actually underperformed Trump’s 2024 performance in 2023, despite the environment in 2023 being better than in 2024. His opponent, Lily Franklin, has outraised him, although both candidates have raised over a million dollars according to VPAP, an extremely unusual feat for a State House race. VA-41 includes most of Blacksburg, which is where Virginia Tech is located, leading to the district being relatively highly educated. Obenshain just has no wiggle room here, and because of that, Franklin is slightly favored to flip this seat.

VA-49 (Lean R): VA-49 is one of four races that is open, meaning no incumbent is running. This race was actually uncontested in 2023, kind of strange for the Democrats considering Trump only won it 8% in 2024, and only by 3% in 2020. VA-49 as a whole is an average district, being a majority white area with average education rates and income compared to the state. The race is between two Danville City Council members, Democrat Gary Miller, and Republican Madison Whittle, and Whittle is currently outraising Miller according to VPAP. With the environment being better for Democrats in 2025, it should look more like 2020, but Whittle is still favored to win.

VA-50 (Safe R): Trump won this district in 2024 by 19%, and incumbent Tommy Wright won by 32%! in 2023, even outperforming Youngkin in 2021. This race will not be competitive.

VA-52 (Likely R): VA-52 contains almost all of Lynchburg, Virginia, and voted for Trump by 12% in 2024. That was about a 10% shift right from 2020, a big enough shift to make this district a reach for Democrats. That being said, the incumbent Republican, Wendell Walker, underperformed both Youngkin in 2021, and Trump in 2024, only winning by 9% in 2023. The district shifting as much as it did is a bit strange, as there are not a lot of the normal warning signs you would see in areas that shifted right in the last couple years. VA-52 is majority white, and about average when it comes to education and income. We think this will be competitive, but Walker has the clear edge here.

VA-55 (Safe D): Amy Laufer, the Democratic incumbent, will run unopposed in a district that voted for Harris by 22%, and shifted to her by about 1%.

VA-56 (Safe R): VA-56 voted for Trump in 2024 by 22%, and the Republican incumbent, Tom Garrett, ran unopposed in 2023. This time, he at least has an opponent, but Garrett almost certainly will win in this central Virginia district.

VA-57 (Likely D) (FLIP): VA-57 is easily the most vulnerable race for an incumbent in Virginia, that being Republican David Owen. This district voted for Biden by 6%, then shifted left by another 3% in 2024, which is about the biggest shift you will see from the 2020 to 2024 presidential race. Owen only won by 2% in 2023, which was worse than Youngkin did in 2021, when he won the district by 3%. His opponent, May Nivar, has endorsements from just about every important Democrat in Virginia, and is outraising him by a 2 to 1 factor, according to VPAP. VA-57 is also one of the most educated districts in the whole state, which bodes well for Nivar, particularly in non-presidential years. For all these reasons, Nivar is not only favored, but clearly favored to flip this district.

VA-58 (Safe D): Although VA-58 was competitive in the Governor’s race in 2021, and incumbent Rodney Willitt won by less than double digits, this should be a safe hold for Willitt and the Democrats. The district voted for Harris in 2024, and was another district in the Richmond area that shifted towards Harris from Biden in 2020. In more Republican friendly years, this could be a competitive race, but this environment is not conducive for that.

VA-59 (Likely R): Went for Trump in both 2020 and 2024 by about 15%. The Republican incumbent, Buddy Fowler, won by about 16% in 2023, which was significantly worse than Youngkin’s 27% margin in 2021. It’s unlikely that Fowler will be in danger of losing, but the margin could get close enough to warrant the Likely R rating.

VA-63 (Safe R): VA-63 voted for Trump by 19% in 2024, and 16% in 2020. Phill Scott (not the governor) ran uncontested in 2023, and although he has an actual opponent, he will easily win this seat.

VA-64 (Lean D) (FLIP): VA-64 will be one of the closest races in the House, as Biden won it by .3% in 2020, and Trump won it by 1.3% in 2024. The incumbent, Paul Milde, did win by about 9% in 2023, but again, the environment will be much more hostile to Republicans in 2025 than in 2023. This district is right on the outskirts of Northern Virginia, meaning that issues relating to the federal government workforce could matter a lot here, especially with the government shutdown. His opponent is Stacy Carroll, a former veteran who has a huge fundraising advantage over Milde, with Carroll raising about $900,000, while Milde has only raised $400,000 according to VPAP. Of course, money is not everything, but Carroll has a lot more money to campaign with, in a race where name recognition might be the difference. The district is slightly above average when it comes to income and education, which further bodes well for Carroll in a non-presidential year. If Carroll wants to win, she will have to get high turnout within the core of Stafford, while Milde will have to run up the margins within the rural and exurban areas of the district. The biggest thing working for Milde is that he is the incumbent, and that next to his name is valuable when every vote matters. With all that being said, Carroll should barely have the edge, but it will be within a couple percentage points either way.

VA-65 (Likely D): Harris won VA-65 by 9% in 2024, and Democratic incumbent Joshua Cole won this seat by 6% in 2023. In other years, this could be a district to watch, but as the environment will be friendlier, it’s unlikely that Cole will lose his Fredericksburg based seat. Interestingly though, this seat’s demographics look almost identical to VA-64, which is currently held by a Republican and will have a very competitive election. One thing to look out for is the difference of margin between these two seats, which was about 10% in 2024. Will it be much closer in 2025, or will this separation continue?

VA-66 (Lean R): Although this district went Republican in all 4 major elections we used (President 2020, Governor 2021, State House 2023, President 2024), margins were vastly different depending on the election. At the federal level, Trump won both 2020 and 2024 by about 1%, but at the state level, Youngkin won by 13%, and Republican incumbent Bobby Orrock won by 11%. His opponent is Nicole Cole, who’s managed to raise almost a million dollars, compared to Orrock’s $350,000, according to VPAP. The demographics are probably more friendly to Orrock, as the district is majority white and about average on education rates, although 20% of the district is African-American, which helps Cole. Cole will have to get high turnout in the Fredericksburg suburbs, and hope turnout is low enough within rural Spotsylvania country. With all that being said, Orrock’s incumbency advantage, and the fact this district has not gone for Dems in any election in recent years, leads us to put it in the Lean R column.

VA-67 (Safe R): VA-67 voted for Trump by about 20% in 2024, and 15% in 2020. Incumbent Hillary Pugh Kent won by 32%, so for that reason alone, this seat will stay with Republicans.

VA-69 (Lean R): Democrats did not contest this seat in 2023, which is crazy because Trump only won this seat by 1.7% in 2024. VA-69 did technically trend to Democrats from 2020-2024, moving left by .1%. Incumbent Chad Green has a tougher test in 2025 though, facing Mark Downey, who ran for the House of Delegates in both 2019 and 2021. Downey has managed to outraise Green by about $200,000 according to VPAP. Like a lot of these competitive districts, it’s a majority white district that is about 40% college educated. The district is broadly divided into two parts; a diverse, educated area on the very edges of the Virginia Beach Metro area, and an eastern, white area centered on Yorktown. We think though, that Green has the (very) slight edge because this district did not vote for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024, and if Green ran unopposed 2023, there must have been some reason for that.

VA-70 (Safe D): VA-70 voted for Harris by 21%, and voted for current Representative Shelly Simonds by 18% in 2023. Considering the environment we expect this year, it’s very unlikely Simonds will come close to losing her seat.

VA-71 (Lean D) (FLIP): This district voted for Harris by 5% and Biden in 2020 by 3%, making it the rare district that moved left from 2020-2024. That being said, this is one of several seats that voted for Harris, but has a Republican representative, that being Amanda Batten. Batten won re-election by about 2% in 2023, which was an underperformance of Youngkin’s performance in 2021 when he won the district by 7%. Her opponent is Jessica Anderson, who Batten actually beat in 2023 for this seat, so this is a rematch. The environment should be more favorable to Anderson however, who has raised half a million more dollars than Batten, according to VPAP. VA-71 is pretty similar to VA-69, with the key difference being that it’s simply more Democratic-leaning to begin with. It’s majority white, with about 20% of people being black, and education and income rates slightly above average in Virginia. Batten just has no room to lose here, and considering the environment will be worse for her, Anderson will be favored here.

VA-73 (Lean D) (FLIP): This district is a rarity in modern politics, because it went from Trump winning it by 7% in 2020, to Harris winning it in 2024 by 1%. There are very few, if any other districts at the federal level, state level, or in our 100K district project that shifted towards Democrats this much. This likely has to do with a lot of people moving to the district, as it’s right on the outskirts of Richmond. These people are likely affluent, educated, and moving from out of the state. Turnout also went up 13% from the 2020 Presidential election, to the 2024 Presidential election, which is the second highest increase out of any House of Delegates district. The incumbent, Republican Mark Earley Jr. won by 9% in 2023, but he has stiff competition this time around. He’s facing Leslie Mehta, who was the Democratic nominee for Virginia’s 1st Congressional district in 2024. She has also outraised Earley by over $800,000, according to VPAP. Put simply, this electorate in 2025 won’t be the same as even 2023, and the shift between the Presidential races from 2020-2024, Mehta will be slightly favored here.

VA-74 (Likely R) Trump went from winning VA-74 by 13% in 2020, to only 8% in 2024. Incumbent Republican Mike Cherry ran uncontested in 2023, but has an actual opponent in 2025, that being Jonas Eppert. That being said, he does not appear to be a particular threat for Cherry, as Cherry has easily outraised him, per VPAP. If Cherry had a strong opponent, this could be a very competitive race, and it will probably be in single digits, but Cherry is still the favorite to win.

VA-75 (Lean D) (FLIP): VA-75 is yet another district in the Richmond area that shifted towards Harris, going from Biden winning it by 5% to Harris winning it by 6% in 2024. The main difference between this district and some of the other ones we’ve talked about is that the district is not majority-white, only plurality-white. Black people make up about a third of the population here, and Hispanic people make up a further 10% of the population. Because of this, turnout is lower here than in the higher educated, white districts. With all that in mind, the district is currently held by a Republican, Carrie Coyner. She won in 2023 by about 6%, and Youngkin won in 2021 by 8%. Her opponent is Lindsey Dougherty, who previously ran for the House of Delegates in 2019. This will certainly be one of the most competitive and contentious races in the whole House of Delegates, as both candidates have raised over a million dollars, according to VPAP. That being said, Dougherty has outraised Coyner by $700,000, which combined with the Democratic lean at the national level of this district, leads us to slightly favor Dougherty. One potential kink in this race though for Dougherty is that Coyner was the recipient of the now infamous texts sent by Attorney General candidate Jay Jones, according to NBC News.

VA-76 (Safe D): This race will not be competitive, as Harris won it by 27%, and incumbent Debra Gardner won by 28% in 2023. The only reason it did not make the “Not Worth Consideration” list is because Youngkin “only” lost it by 18.5% in 2021.

VA-82 (Lean D) (FLIP): VA-82 is actually a plurality-black district, and the only swing district that isn’t plurality or majority white. Harris won this district by 5%, and Biden won it in 2020 by 11%, so a sizable shift right in this fairly rural district centered on Petersburg. A Republican also holds this district, incumbent Republican Kim Taylor. Taylor only won her race in 2023 by 78 votes, or 0.27%! Her opponent is the same as her opponent in 2023, Kimberly Pope Adams. Adams has raised more than double the money Taylor has, according to VPAP, but both have raised over a million dollars. Again, with the environment being better for Democrats than in 2023 or even 2024, Adams should be the slight favorite here.

VA-83 (Likely R): Trump won VA-83 by about 8%, an improvement from 2020 when it won by only 3%. The district is about 40% black, and well below average on education rate and household income in Virginia. Incumbent Otto Wachsmann managed to win this seat by 17%, actually improving Youngkin’s margin in 2021, when he won by 14%. Wachsmann seems like a strong incumbent, and considering Trump won this district in 2020 and 2024 to begin with, it’s unlikely opponent Mary Person will threaten Wachsmann.

VA-84 (Safe D): This might be a bold call putting VA-84 at Safe D, and in some years it would be a more vulnerable seat for Democrats. That being said, even if incumbent Nadarius Clark only won this seat by 6% in 2023, Harris won this seat in 2024 by 14%, and the environment should be better for Clark than either of those years. The seat was also open in 2023, meaning that Clark had no incumbent advantage, unlike in 2025.

VA-86 (Lean D) (FLIP): This is one of seven districts where both a Republican won in 2023, and Harris won in 2024. Harris won in 2024 only by 2%, doing a bit worse than Biden’s 4% in 2020. Incumbent Republican A.C Cordoza won in 2023 by 13%, outperforming even Youngkin in 2021. The district is centered on Hampton, a suburb of Norfolk/Virginia Beach, and is a majority-white district that’s about average when it comes to education rate and household income in Virginia. Cordoza’s opponent in 2025 is Virgil Thornton Sr., who’s managed to outraise him by over $800,000, according to VPAP. We originally had this as a hold for Republicans, but because of unsavory accusations for Cordoza by Democrats and Thornton (which Cordoza denies), we suspect Cordoza’s incumbent advantage is gone. We have this as a flip, but this still will be one of the closest races in the House of Delegates.

VA-89 (Likely D) (FLIP): VA-89 only went to Harris in 2024 by 2%, and it currently has a Republican incumbent, so why Likely D? There’s two main reasons that the district will be an open race, as the incumbent is not seeking re-election for 2025, and the district (barely) shifted from Biden in 2020, to Harris in 2024. The seat is on the southern side of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach Metro area, with it being a relatively rural district. The area is also majority-white, with a sizable black minority, and it’s about average when it comes to education rate and household income in Virginia. The race is between Republican Mike Lamonea, and Democrat Kacey Carnegie. Both candidates have raised a lot of money, but Carnegie has managed to raise over a million more dollars according to VPAP, and she’s spent over 6 times the amount of money on ads than Lamonea has. On top of all this, Lamonea was a former ICE special agent, probably one of the least ideal jobs to have in a Democratic-tilting district in 2025. Because it’s an open seat that Harris won in 2024, the fundraising advantage that Carnegie has, and the environment we expect for this election, Carnegie is clearly favored here.

VA-90 (Safe R): This district voted for Trump by 17% in both 2020 and 2024, but was much more Republican in 2021 and 2023. Current incumbent Jay Leftwich won in 2023 by 26%, and he should cruise to re-election in 2025.

VA-94 (Safe D): This district voted for Harris by about 15% in 2024, and Biden by 17% in 2020. Incumbent Democrat Phil Hernandez won in 2023 by 11%, and should easily win re-election in 2025.

VA-95 (Safe D): Harris won this district in 2024 by 20%, and incumbent Democrat Alex Askew ran unopposed in 2023, and is doing so again in 2025.

VA-96 (Safe D): VA-96 went to Harris by about 16%, and incumbent Kelly Convirs-Fowler won by about 15% in 2023. She should cruise to victory in this Virginia Beach district.

VA-97 (Likely D): This will probably be one of the closest races for an incumbent Democrat, as Harris only won the district by 8% in 2024. Incumbent Michael Feggans won in 2023 by about 5%, and Youngkin actually managed to win this district, albeit by 2%. VA-97 is a majority-white area that is about average when it comes to college education, and slightly below average when it comes to household income. That being said, Feggans is significantly outraising his opponent, per VPAP, and the fact the environment will be more friendly for Democrats than 2023 or 2024 should keep this one in the Democratic column.

VA-98 (Safe R): Trump won VA-98 by 15%, and incumbent Barry Knight ran opposed in 2023. While he does have an actual opponent in 2025, this race is unlikely to be super competitive. Interestingly though, the district did shift about 4% left from 2020 to 2024, so it’s possible that the margin will be within single digits.

VA-99 (Lean R): VA-99 constitutes the northeastern part of Virginia Beach, an area that is relatively affluent and well-educated. Trump won this district by 5% in both 2024 and 2020, and also has a Republican incumbent, that being Anne Ferrell Tata. She won her race by 15% in 2023, and Governor Youngkin won this district by 18% in 2021. This is the type of district that Democrats could reach for if election night goes very well as a whole for them, but they certainly are underdogs in the most likely environment. Tata’s opponent is Cat Porterfield, who also ran against Tata in 2023. Because Porterfield lost handily that year, and that Tata has outraised her, according to VPAP, we give the edge to Tata.

VA-100 (Lean R): This seat is quite similar to VA-99, as Trump won both by the same margin in both 2024 and 2020 (5%), and they both are located in the Virginia Beach metro. VA-100 is actually the district of the Eastern Shore, a pretty unique feature in Virginia’s geography. Compared to VA-99, it’s a bit less educated, but also a bit less white, being about 20% black. Robert Bloxom Jr., the incumbent Republican, won in 2023 by 20%, but the environment was a lot better for Bloxom Jr. in 2023 than in 2025. He is still favored to win, but it should be considerably closer this time around.