Florida Special Election Results and Reaction: Do Democrats Have a Chance in Florida in the Midterms?

FROM: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/national-parks/article/everglades-national-park-florida-guide

No.

But it’s a step in the right direction, after the repeated setbacks of Florida Democrats in the Trump era. On Tuesday, March 24th, three special elections happened to fill seats in the state legislature. Two seats (51 and 87) were in the State House, and one seat, 14, in the State Senate. All of these seats were held by Republicans, with the Senate seat being vacated by Jay Collins, who is now the Lt. Governor. Hilary Holley was the incumbent in HD-51, but vacated to run in Collins’ now vacant seat. Finally, Mike Caruso was the incumbent in HD-87, but resigned because he was appointed as Palm Beach County Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller.

With this all in mind, Democrats had a pretty good night, flipping two of these seats, and seeing sizable shifts towards them in all seats. Let’s go through each district one by one, and see what we can take away from the elections, and how indicative this could be for the midterms in Florida.

HD-51

Ethnicity Map by Block Group (Redistricter)

Mostly in Polk County, HD-51 is mostly a suburban and exurban district in between Orlando and Tampa. The current district borders have been consistently Republican since 2016, but the current borders have existed since 2022. HD-51 was represented by a Republican, Josie Tomkow, who ran in the special election for SD-14 (more on that later). Republican Hilary Holley won the district by about 8%, in-between the 2020 (R+6.3) and 2024 (R+13.5) Presidential results. While some Democrats may see this as a fairly disappointing performance, this isn’t really the type of district that Democrats are expected to excel in in 2026. It’s majority-white, non-educated, and still in the state of Florida. Democrats should do a lot better in other parts of Florida, that are more Hispanic and more educated, but this district is neither of those.

One thing that people have to remember about Florida is that the electorate is significantly different than in 2012 or even 2016. There’s been a lot of migration to Florida, mostly older people who tend to be more conservative than the people who were coming from the 90s and 2000s. The Hispanic and minority shifts in Florida can more reasonably be explained by just people changing their votes, but not so much when it comes to white people in places like Cape Coral and St. Petersburg.

HD-87

HD-87 was arguably the race with the most attention, mostly due to 2 reasons. For one thing, this is the district that Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s primary residence outside of being President, is in. The district is located in Palm Beach County, and covers most of the coastal parts of the county. Unlike HD-51, HD-87 is more college-educated, with about 46% of residents having a Bachelor’s degree (33% national average). It also is very wealthy, with the average household making roughly 50% more than the national average of $97,000 per year.

In 2016 and 2020 the district was extremely competitive, with it voting for Clinton by .1% in 2016 and for Trump by .3% in 2020. Like most places in Florida though, it shifted to the right in 2024, with Trump winning by about 11%. The incumbent in 2024 though, actually won this seat by 19%, and no Democrat has won this seat this century, per Florida Politics.

HD-87 is the kind of district we expect Democrats to do better in compared to say, HD-51, and that showed. The Democrat, Emily Gregory, flipped this seat by 2%. Will Democrats do this well in a seat like this in November? Probably not, but it’s a positive development. Anytime you look at a special election result, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Turnout is much lower even in hotly contested special elections like these. Combined, about 33,000 people voted, but the election for this seat in 2024, 96,000 people voted. It’s something for sure, but don’t automatically assume that this result will translate in the upcoming midterms.

SD-14

Finally, SD-14, near downtown Tampa, was the lone State Senate seat up last Tuesday. This seat, as mentioned earlier, was vacated when the present incumbent was appointed as Lt. Governor, a bold move considering it’s a competitive seat in a Democratic environment. This seat voted for Clinton and Biden, but voted for Trump in 2024 by about 7%. Unlike the other two districts up for election, there is a significant minority presence, with about a third of residents being Hispanic, mostly found in the central parts of the district. The district is also pretty educated, with 43% of people having a Bachelor’s degree, mostly found in the southern and northernmost white parts of SD-14.

Democrat Brian Nathan upset Republican Representative Josie Tomkow, who had vacated HD-51 to run in this race. Nathan won by 405 votes, or 0.5%, which is surprising because Tomkow raised 6 times the amount of money Nathan did (Per Florida Data Geek on X). What we saw in this race is what we’ve seen in most elections in 2025 and 2026: Democrats having huge shifts in Hispanic areas. If there one was one election from Florida last Tuesday that Democrats should be most excited for, it should be this one.

Conclusion

Democrats won’t win Florida in 2026, it’s just too far gone for that to realistically happen. But results on Tuesday, as well as in 2025 imply that the state could finally be moving in the right direction. Democrats have to be willing to put in long-term investment in states like Florida, and especially Texas, if they want to maximize their potential in the future. Even if they don’t win statewide now, they can win under the radar local elections, and win enough legislature seats to actually hold sway. If we were to give a realistic goal for the Governor race, if Democrats can get within 8%, that would be a short term win to get to their long term goals.

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