On Saturday, an election for a State Senate seat in Texas, TX-9, is changing our expectations for the midterms in 2026. In our first major special election in Texas since President Trump was inaugurated, in a seat that he won by 17% in 2024, Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet won by 15%, which was a 32% shift between elections. This is nothing short of incredible, and could have huge ramifications for the present and the future.
First though, let’s take a quick look at the district’s demographics and electoral history to get an idea of what TX-9 is like.
Electoral History
2026 Special Election: D+14
2024 Presidential: R+17
2020 Presidential: R+13
2016 Presidential: R+24
Turnout History (100K Average)
2026 Special Election: 13.2%
2024 Presidential: 54.5% (58.7%)
2020 Presidential: 53.2% (60%)
2016 Presidential: 40.1% (49.7%)
Demographics (100K Average)
57% White (61%)
10% Black (12%)
29% Hispanic (19%)
5% Asian (6%)
34% Bachelor’s (33%)
11% Graduate’s (13%)
$106,939 Household Income ($97,000)
TX-9 takes up the northern part of Tarrant County, AKA Fort Worth near Dallas. In a lot of ways, it’s a pretty average snapshot of the country. Its income and education rates are more or less average, and its majority white as well. There are a few things about this district that are unique though, mainly that it’s about 30% Hispanic, mostly concentrated near downtown Fort Worth, and there are highly educated areas right in downtown Fort Worth, and suburban areas within the north and eastern parts of the district. The majority of the district, though, is white Texan suburban sprawl.
As for how TX-9 voted in 2024, it went to Trump by about 17%. Harris won downtown, the Hispanic areas near downtown, and a few black precincts near Arlington and the district border. Trump managed to win the district though, with huge margins in the “white Texan suburban sprawl”.
Like in almost every other Hispanic area, Trump had huge gains in the Hispanic precincts, modest gains in the Black precincts, while Harris had some minor shifts in the outer, more exurban parts of the district.
With all of that in mind, let’s look at what actually happened in the election on Saturday. Thanks to HUGE Hispanic shifts, and actually winning a lot of the “white Texan suburban sprawl” Remhet dominated, winning a Trump +17 seat by 15%.
These 2 maps look so different, you would think that LBJ was back on the ballot! These kinds of shifts just don’t happen often, even in special elections. I really want to drive home the point of how much and significant Hispanics shifted. As pointed out by Joel Wertheimer on Bluesky, Rehmet did well in almost every precinct, but did particularly well in the Hispanic precincts within the district, shifting in some places by 40-50%!
Trump won thanks to a lot of different demographics and reasons in 2024, but the biggest reason he might have won was the Hispanic shift, which really started in 2020. According to our 100K District Project, Hispanics shifted by about 25% from 2016 to 2024, and these gains helped him put states like Texas and Florida into uncompetitive territory… Or so we thought.
I do want to make this extremely clear though: this was a special election, with very low turnout, somewhere between 13-15% of all eligible voters participated. a 30% shift everywhere, or even in Texas is extremely unrealistic. That all being said, this is just adding onto the evidence we have that Republicans will not do well in this year’s midterms. Our generic ballot average has Dems up by 6.5%, which could very well put states like Ohio, Texas, Florida, Iowa, and Alaska into winnable territory for Democrats.
You have to remember that Trump won the election by about 1.5%, and Republicans won the overall house vote by 2.5%, meaning that a D+6.5 result would be somewhere between an 8-9% shift. If every state shifts like that, Texas would easily be within 5%, and that’s not factoring in the specific shifts we have seen for demographics. In the 2025 elections, we saw Democrats doing particularly well with Hispanic voters, getting margins close to or surpassing 2020 levels.
Even if Democrats do not win these states this year in any Senate or Gubernatorial races, there could be flips like this, in State House or Senate seats, which are VITAL to win. Democrats have a legitimate chance to win though, especially in Texas’s senate seat this year. We still don’t think a Democrat (Crockett or Talarico) is favored, but an ideal matchup against Paxton could be extremely competitive.
Resources:
Redistricter
Tarrant County:
Downballot Special Election Big Board
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